As a supporter of Libertarian Candidate for President, Gary Johnson, I've been posting various articles about him on Facebook. A comment that has been made not only on one of my posts, but in a post by a marijuana advocate, as well as in other comments I've come across regarding the candidate, and that is that he doesn't have "a snowball's chance in hell of being elected." I find it rather funny that the afore mentioned advocate for the re-legalization of marijuana, who is mounting a write-in campaign for president, would make such a comment when Gary Johnson will be on the ballot in every state, and if he manages to get into the debates, he will start to be taken seriously, which in turn could lead to an outpouring of financial support.
In the past year there have been many commentaries on how the 2012 election could see an Independent/Third Party Candidate having a shot at being a contender (links follow commentary). Why is so hard for some people to even fathom the possibility of a candidate such as Gary Johnson receiving substantial support? While the system is rigged against challengers to the two-party System, it still leaves a crack for someone to get their foot in the door.
In a previous post, I made the case that social media could provide Johnson with a major boost and help improve his poll numbers. The Johnson campaign is currently lagging in the social media arena with just about 55,000 Twitter followers and slightly more than 186,000 Facebook likes (a Gary Johnson 2012 page has about 2,600 likes). President Obama has more than 27 million Facebook likes, and more than 17.6 million Twitter followers; presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney has about 2.5 million Facebook likes and roughly 672,000 Twitter followers.
The chances of Johnson becoming a "snowball from hell," lies first with the media and whether all the writers who speculated on the prospect of Americans going outside of the Two-Party System tout Johnson as having a chance and others in the media start jumping on the Johnson bandwagon. Media attention will have a ripple effect via social media as more people learn what Johnson is about and start to see that friends are posting support for Johnson, which in turn will have people who are undecided thinking that maybe voting for a Third Party Candidate might not be a waste of their vote. Besides, the only wasted votes are those which are not cast by apathetic citizens not even participating in the system.
I was once among the non-voting segment of the population and didn't cast my first vote until the age of 28 in the 1992 election. A roommate who was (and still is) active in the Libertarian Party, made me aware of an alternative to choosing between the lesser of two evils, and since then I have voted for the Libertarian nominee for president. While I'm not an official member of the party, I believe in many Libertarian ideals, but I also share a number of views of the Green Party and elements of other parties as well.
Part of the excitement Obama brought to his campaign was the prospect of a candidate of African heritage, making it to the White House. So why can't people get excited about the prospect of giving the Donkey & the Elephant a timeout from the White House by electing a third party Candidate?
Given the recent past example of Ross Perot managing to get almost 20% of the popular vote in his 1992 run, despite halting his campaign and then restarting months later (thereby losing precious momentum), which proves that a fair percentage of people are willing to embrace an alternative to, as Jesse Ventura puts it, the Political Gangland of U.S. politics between the DemoCRIPS and ReBLOODlicans. So why would a politician (who was previously a successful businessman), and who has two full terms of political executive experience not be considered as being a legitimate contender?
In a recent Gallup Poll (June), things aren't looking good for Johnson, who is presently at only 3% (a July poll by JZ Analytics has Johnson at just over 5%). What makes the low ranking even more alarming is that in past election polls for June, the candidates outside of the two-party system, polled much higher at that point in the campaign versus the percentage of the vote they ended up with. Ross Perot, in '92 was at 35% (won 19% of the vote) and Ralph Nader in 2000 was at 6% and ended up with 3% of the vote.
Last year Reason magazine had an interesting article on a Reason-Rupe poll with the subject being whether voters would consider casting a vote for an Independent or third-party presidential candidate.
"60% said they would consider voting for an independent or third-party candidate, 20% said they might consider,17% said they would not consider, and 3% said they did not know whether they would consider voting for an Independent or third-party presidential candidate."
Johnson has been getting some media attention, including interviews on cable news programs as well as appearing on "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report." If people start to hear more about Johnson, they will take a closer look to see that on many issues, in particular personal liberties, he represents the true spirit of freedom that Americans deserve. The big "if," however, is will he be able to make a steady climb in the polls, get into the debates, and continue to chip away at Romney and Obama?
"It [America] was founded and I hope that it resurges the notion of liberty, the notion of freedom, the notion of a system that treats everyone equally. I think we move further and further away from that not closer and closer and that if we could all focus on that that would be the focus and we could actually accomplish that. And that’s what I talk about all the time."
--Gary Johnson
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Americans Looking For Independent Candidates
The case for a third party candidate
2012: The Year of the Independent?
Third-Party Candidate Could Rise Due To Voter Dissatisfaction
